Tennis · resolved market
Oeiras 2: Naiktha Bains vs Barbora Palicova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b462f5cd746f3bd6c2a3052497740018e75d7f13e9d90ab72d30b227dba11ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bainsof Bains, Palicova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Palicova | 34c | 2,050$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.33 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bains | 66c | 1,435$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.03 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Palicova | 12c | 548.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Bains | 32c | 498.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.73 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Palicova | 68c | 460.02$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.63 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bains | 63c | 428.16$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Bains | 62c | 323.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Palicova | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Palicova | 21c | 207.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Bains | 32c | 202.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.69 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Bains | 68c | 166.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Palicova | 34c | 156$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Bains | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Palicova | 10c | 115.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Bains | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Bains | 67c | 91.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Palicova | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 66.8%169 W · 84 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…3ed4backed Palicova | 19c | 66.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Bains | 33c | 59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…ae5fbacked Bains | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Palicova | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…ed22backed Bains | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Palicova | 68c | 44.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Palicova | 44c | 43.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bains | 59c | 41.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Palicova | 67c | 35.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af3…caf2backed Palicova | 31c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Palicova | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…400fbacked Bains | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Palicova | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.