Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana Grizzlies vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b83da9dc105721b89815c069404ff6c45b02e6faa5c18437fc74a5aab39d4c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana Grizzliesof Montana Grizzlies, North Dakota Fighting Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Montana Grizzlies | 75c | 6,700$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 25c | 6,500$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 53c | 3,518$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.49 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana Grizzlies | 42c | 2,820$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.94 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Montana Grizzlies | 51c | 836.01$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.44 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…c9eebacked North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 67c | 449.09$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.89 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana Grizzlies | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed Montana Grizzlies | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed North Dakota Fighting Hawks | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Montana Grizzlies | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Montana Grizzlies | 43c | 23.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.