CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Heroic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3babf678f836c63364f2f826e36aa4e0f96895901005203883d6029807dae39c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof M80, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed M80 | 52c | 9,273$4,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,844.09 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Heroic | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.67 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Heroic | 48c | 2,875$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Heroic | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked M80 | 59c | 1,744$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.57 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Heroic | 47c | 1,733$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.49 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Heroic | 56c | 1,069$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.45 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heroic | 42c | 950.51$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.31 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed M80 | 52c | 758.16$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked M80 | 54c | 735.87$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.87 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed M80 | 32c | 702$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.23 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed M80 | 52c | 608.29$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.31 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed M80 | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Heroic | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked M80 | 41c | 392.59$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Heroic | 47c | 350$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Heroic | 56c | 332.23$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.38 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Heroic | 39c | 299.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.6 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed M80 | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Heroic | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…a304backed M80 | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Heroic | 69c | 216.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked M80 | 60c | 160$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Heroic | 46c | 151.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked M80 | 37c | 131.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked M80 | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…9172backed M80 | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Heroic | 69c | 97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Heroic | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed M80 | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed M80 | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed M80 | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed M80 | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f0…c11dbacked M80 | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8402backed M80 | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked M80 | 61c | 24.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.