TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
CA River Plateof CA River Plate, CA Belgrano
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,168
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,168 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x397e…3d84backed CA River Plate27c586.13$157 inWon+$429.0999259.1%586 W · 406 L+108.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked CA River Plate35c552.04$192 inWon+$359.873727%10 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed CA Belgrano77c537.09$413 inLost-$413.088,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed CA Belgrano66c80$53 inLost-$52.823551.5%121 W · 114 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9787…37dfbacked CA River Plate29c65.78$19 inWon+$46.6318145.3%82 W · 99 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked CA Belgrano50c62$31 inLost-$311931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked CA River Plate80c54.76$44 inWon+$10.955,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.