South American Leagues · resolved market
CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ef45fcaad499458aad1626f3cb6482b88216bf1fcfe9f1ae12ec4f3b0fe0952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,019$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 39c | 667.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.03 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 546.66$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.25 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 39c | 518.75$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.44 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 39c | 496.18$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 27c | 451.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.5 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 68c | 432.71$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.24 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 57c | 427.28$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 33c | 392.56$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.39 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 59c | 390.16$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.19 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 41c | 387.79$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 33c | 287.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 245.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 71c | 201.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.41 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…3918backed Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…6f50backed Over | 40c | 188$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Over | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Under | 62c | 167.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 62c | 155.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 143.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…e764backed Under | 39c | 113.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 62c | 106.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 61c | 105.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 62c | 105.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 27c | 69.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 63c | 63.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 56c | 60.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 28c | 54.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 27c | 54.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 63c | 48.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 44c | 48.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 34c | 47.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 63c | 47.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Over | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Under | 63c | 44.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 63c | 44.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 62c | 39.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 62c | 39.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b3cbacked Over | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Under | 52c | 31.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 43c | 31.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 26.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 57c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Under | 59c | 22.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 72c | 20.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5this page
- CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-2.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.