Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c37737d55f001a3188879d454b07287ab64a5a705e6e716b04d73495d08e0c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 74c | 105.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 17c | 83.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 67.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 65.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 52c | 64.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 65c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 56.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 54.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 22c | 50.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes | 49c | 50.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 77c | 49.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 49c | 49.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 43.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 36.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 31.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 67c | 30.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 49c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 74c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 43c | 23.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.