Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c798810160754a9a54525a53c597871759cb0e94356921f32528664808b97d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 53c | 4,268$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.13 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,748$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.09 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 895.77$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.22 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 771.21$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.29 | 977 | 46.3%452 W · 525 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 320.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 917 | 53.1%487 W · 430 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 52c | 278.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 47c | 224$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…ff7bbacked Over | 50c | 208.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…e201backed Under | 50c | 207$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…b374backed Under | 50c | 201$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…925cbacked Over | 50c | 201$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…754ebacked Over | 50c | 200.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0e…9a8ebacked Under | 50c | 200.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…bf3cbacked Under | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 196.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ac…f721backed Over | 50c | 193.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 47c | 189.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9482…d8cbbacked Under | 50c | 185$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…7a0abacked Over | 50c | 183.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 178.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…44cabacked Over | 50c | 178.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775a…6df0backed Under | 50c | 177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Over | 55c | 175.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…63bebacked Over | 50c | 175.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d2…b03fbacked Under | 50c | 173$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b0…6bc9backed Over | 50c | 171.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…42a5backed Under | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 393 | 34.6%136 W · 257 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 139.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Over | 53c | 133.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 1,306 | 51.2%669 W · 637 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 692 | 50.3%348 W · 344 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 42c | 108$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 51c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 37c | 66.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,902 | 36.4%692 W · 1,210 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 48c | 33.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 49c | 31.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…8d60backed Over | 53c | 28.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 27.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e39…d446backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…f650backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…055cbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…c786backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a7…96d0backed Over | 50c | 24.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 24.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 465 | 55.9%260 W · 205 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…f190backed Over | 50c | 24.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…69f9backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e7…9d20backed Over | 50c | 23.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3c…c9e8backed Over | 50c | 23.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…434cbacked Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…c844backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ad…2527backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…2052backed Over | 50c | 22.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa389…6158backed Over | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca33…6368backed Over | 50c | 22.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x925b…8bdebacked Over | 50c | 22.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…61a3backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd62…1574backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…848ebacked Over | 50c | 21.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…4426backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3671…98febacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 79c | 20.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61b6…fcd0backed Over | 50c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…92d9backed Over | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30be…f5f3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f1…e480backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.