Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c7a5b43b7235ca2a962ffdcfc955d0247ee9d420ba901e0df6ee083f88c2c36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,411$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 188.32$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 77c | 165.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 25c | 148.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 16c | 127.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 78c | 119.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 32c | 112$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 99.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 50c | 98.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 50c | 96.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…8501backed Yes | 29c | 92.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 89.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 23c | 71.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 22c | 69.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 66.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 42c | 65.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 24c | 49.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 79c | 46.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…f9a3backed Yes | 38c | 45.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 37c | 43.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 42.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 41.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 61c | 39.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 50c | 37.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 33.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 42c | 30.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 74c | 27.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C or higher on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.