Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB reach $700 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9a7656fbfe9895bf42cbdb88dbaca28b28b0486755cd689120da70d6c08b23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Yes | 19c | 530.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 13c | 524.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.67 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 75c | 499.05$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.52 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Yes | 50c | 297.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 75c | 193.24$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed Yes | 52c | 190.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 64c | 189.7$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed No | 55c | 173.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…9a3dbacked Yes | 33c | 123.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…573ebacked No | 80c | 65.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 62.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 63c | 56.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…20a4backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 50c | 43.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…ca36backed No | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…04b0backed No | 75c | 20.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB reach $700 in May?this page
- Will BNB dip to $500 in May?No won
- Will BNB dip to $600 in May?No won
- Will BNB reach $800 in May?No won
- Will BNB reach $900 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.