Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cd8855653a05889391c6b06ec813678dc33de1850bfcfbb706af192d0ce6e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 47c | 775.61$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.9 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 43c | 747.06$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.4 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 51c | 558.76$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.37 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 25c | 297.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.09 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 56c | 222.73$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…3286backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked Yes | 61c | 164.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 50c | 144.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 108.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 45c | 79.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…d9f7backed Yes | 59c | 56.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 29 – Jan 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.