CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Kaleido Gaming vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce7d55cfa98403040137e137f9eb95ce1023499cfd917a6845d3b38b13c4bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kaleido Gamingof Kaleido Gaming, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda1a…3407backed Kaleido Gaming | 67c | 2,864$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.03 | 289 | 60.6%175 W · 114 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa80c…5a6dbacked Kaleido Gaming | 65c | 1,845$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.8 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Kaleido Gaming | 64c | 1,652$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.96 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 33c | 1,120$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.18 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 30c | 877.81$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.4 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 41c | 755$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.8 | 259 | 44.8%116 W · 143 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…84c5backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf868…3b45backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 31c | 429.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 54c | 300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 262 | 46.9%123 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 34c | 279.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…e508backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 41c | 239.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 57c | 200$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…e2a8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 39c | 179.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…14f6backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 42c | 165.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 46cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…2450backed Kaleido Gaming | 37c | 160$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Kaleido Gaming | 31c | 159.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 266 | 24.4%65 W · 201 L | -26.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 25c | 137.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Kaleido Gaming | 43c | 109.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Kaleido Gaming | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Kaleido Gaming | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 44c | 99.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Kaleido Gaming | 47c | 97.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa610…6121backed Kaleido Gaming | 34c | 89.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Kaleido Gaming | 48c | 82.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Kaleido Gaming | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked Kaleido Gaming | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…7327backed Kaleido Gaming | 66c | 18.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Kaleido Gaming vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Kaleido Gaming vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group BTHUNDER dOWNUNDER won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.