Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Texas State Bobcats vs. James Madison Dukes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d0094ef0cf401c13b85840efe3ab19be1336f930583c0faea69ecd9b693eb13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madison Dukesof Texas State Bobcats, James Madison Dukes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Texas State Bobcats | 36c | 411.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed James Madison Dukes | 65c | 394$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked James Madison Dukes | 64c | 379.95$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Texas State Bobcats | 35c | 289.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed James Madison Dukes | 65c | 239.54$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 186 | 54.3%101 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Texas State Bobcats | 35c | 233$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Texas State Bobcats | 35c | 232.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Texas State Bobcats | 33c | 221.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked James Madison Dukes | 67c | 221.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 33c | 221.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Texas State Bobcats | 33c | 156.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Texas State Bobcats | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bc…963cbacked James Madison Dukes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed James Madison Dukes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Texas State Bobcats | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed James Madison Dukes | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed James Madison Dukes | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Texas State Bobcats | 30c | 33.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Texas State Bobcats | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked James Madison Dukes | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed James Madison Dukes | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed James Madison Dukes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.