Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Montana State Bobcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d13650a574fed5f2b562bd6bb3371162181083d89b122a42e5c10c1c04862a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof Sacramento State Hornets, Montana State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 17c | 2,396$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.8 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 1,009$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.88 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Montana State Bobcats | 78c | 871.13$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.2 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sacramento State Hornets | 20c | 816.08$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed Sacramento State Hornets | 21c | 685.42$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.08 | 298 | 45.3%135 W · 163 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Sacramento State Hornets | 3c | 560.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 136 | 3.7%5 W · 131 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 20c | 342.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 20c | 298.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Montana State Bobcats | 77c | 269.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac09…a283backed Sacramento State Hornets | 23c | 221.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Sacramento State Hornets | 20c | 205.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 14c | 165.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Sacramento State Hornets | 22c | 142.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 26c | 101.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 21c | 99.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Sacramento State Hornets | 19c | 99.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 23c | 91.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Sacramento State Hornets | 21c | 81.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Montana State Bobcats | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Montana State Bobcats | 78c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 430 | 53.3%229 W · 201 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Sacramento State Hornets | 19c | 60.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…0e3ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 79c | 40.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x580e…83c5backed Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 38.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…9feebacked Montana State Bobcats | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…f3f5backed Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 28.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe93…4a43backed Montana State Bobcats | 77c | 28.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…1884backed Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 26.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Montana State Bobcats | 78c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…2c2bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 22.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2766…2eecbacked Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 20.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…da16backed Montana State Bobcats | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…f01cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 76c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sacramento State Hornets vs. Montana State Bobcatsthis page
- Sacramento State Hornets vs. Montana State Bobcats: O/U 157.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.