Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d4fb5b42da07c84e9e64c5bed587e4483b1fc8de6d4c6223526d4d73615e1a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof Borussia Dortmund, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Borussia Dortmund | 54c | 5,189$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Borussia Dortmund | 50c | 5,135$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.33 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hamburger SV | 44c | 4,257$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.64 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…21ebbacked Hamburger SV | 50c | 4,200$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Hamburger SV | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Hamburger SV | 45c | 999$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.45 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hamburger SV | 47c | 943.54$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.21 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Borussia Dortmund | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hamburger SV | 49c | 702.76$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.19 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Borussia Dortmund | 51c | 642$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Borussia Dortmund | 52c | 582.96$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.03 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…644abacked Borussia Dortmund | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Borussia Dortmund | 50c | 200.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Borussia Dortmund | 56c | 179.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…f9c8backed Borussia Dortmund | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Hamburger SV | 50c | 158.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Borussia Dortmund | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…e65abacked Borussia Dortmund | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…c0d3backed Borussia Dortmund | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Borussia Dortmund | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Borussia Dortmund | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed Hamburger SV | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Borussia Dortmund | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Hamburger SV | 49c | 35.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Borussia Dortmund | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Hamburger SV | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Hamburger SV | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Hamburger SV | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…b95dbacked Borussia Dortmund | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…468cbacked Borussia Dortmund | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)this page
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.