CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d8140a108380e4e61e6290a2ca4b7a0078c104448807a0ac073845a26a61079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- QUAZARof Atreides, QUAZAR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Atreides | 44c | 1,018$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.4 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Atreides | 48c | 677.49$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.04 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed Atreides | 40c | 624.94$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.82 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed QUAZAR | 65c | 623.44$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.02 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0bd9backed QUAZAR | 47c | 407.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Atreides | 19c | 401.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Atreides | 32c | 333.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Atreides | 47c | 327.88$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed QUAZAR | 49c | 305.73$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.71 | 215 | 28.8%62 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed QUAZAR | 51c | 303.97$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.46 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…31f9backed QUAZAR | 49c | 303.86$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed QUAZAR | 63c | 285.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Atreides | 37c | 230.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Atreides | 45c | 218.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…ae39backed QUAZAR | 70c | 202.13$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked QUAZAR | 45c | 186.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 157 | 32.5%51 W · 106 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked QUAZAR | 51c | 165.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Atreides | 52c | 163.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed QUAZAR | 66c | 153.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked QUAZAR | 64c | 152.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | -32.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…5bb2backed Atreides | 22c | 133.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…98c3backed QUAZAR | 50c | 115.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked QUAZAR | 49c | 112.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Atreides | 37c | 102.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6e…a603backed Atreides | 59c | 98.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed QUAZAR | 69c | 97.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Atreides | 55c | 95.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked QUAZAR | 52c | 87.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Atreides | 62c | 85.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 222 | 56.8%126 W · 96 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Atreides | 30c | 76.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf44…760bbacked Atreides | 53c | 70.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed QUAZAR | 69c | 69.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked QUAZAR | 57c | 50.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Atreides | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked QUAZAR | 55c | 44.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…68c9backed Atreides | 39c | 43.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked QUAZAR | 56c | 40.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Atreides | 29c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed QUAZAR | 43c | 35.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked QUAZAR | 66c | 34.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed Atreides | 49c | 29.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Atreides | 48c | 29.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Atreides | 47c | 26.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…f251backed Atreides | 51c | 24.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed QUAZAR | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 544 | 39.7%216 W · 328 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked QUAZAR | 51c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked QUAZAR | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…faacbacked QUAZAR | 64c | 15.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.