Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dad17f1805b6c1839d1730d95e46015e37ff74bd4b28281090ca283ae16698a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 430.39$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 210.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 202.72$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 191.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 37c | 157.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 125.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 124.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 120.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 29c | 101.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 99.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 94.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 83.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 64c | 81.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 78.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 35c | 74.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 67.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 75c | 66.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 62c | 64.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 61.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 58.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 56.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 54.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 52.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 46c | 52.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 52.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 60c | 52.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 28c | 50.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 50.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 30c | 50.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 47.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 60c | 46.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 43.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 39.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 39.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…2139backed No | 71c | 37.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 44c | 33.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 32.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 30.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 29.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 58c | 29.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 58c | 29.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…eb28backed No | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 25.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 59c | 23.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.