Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4f81340650a442d7eb261478a7373d11608ed7eb113f42bb20d8690eda398a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 54c | 1,194$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.14 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 847$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.03 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 32c | 594$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.48 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 76c | 266$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 65c | 173$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 75c | 130$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 58c | 126$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 55c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 51c | 72.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 80c | 51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 37c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.