Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0c57e6625ab83a833103de3a8d4efd19854f90feb266da6fbfdd4e758641781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 49c | 505$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.65 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 31c | 115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 43c | 103$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -71%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.