South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Estudiantes vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec242585a2228a12e0043ed937811ead8e4ea232edb05cd11f8fc45fc0f4950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 24c | 23,151$5,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,473.86 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 19,706$14,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,375.49 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 5,601$4,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…582dbacked Over | 42c | 2,437$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 2,415$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.18 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…a822backed Under | 43c | 907$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 34c | 891.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 59c | 849.83$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 47c | 632.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3584…e59dbacked Over | 57c | 607$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 531.37$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 446.63$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.12 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 55c | 401.64$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 62c | 311.37$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 298.81$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.41 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 55c | 276.42$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 54c | 242.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…5745backed Under | 55c | 234$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 155.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 152.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 96.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…b7f6backed Over | 49c | 82.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…3ee0backed Over | 23c | 77.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…c63ebacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 61c | 40.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…c4b8backed Under | 47c | 34.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 32c | 33.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…d960backed Over | 55c | 31.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…39fdbacked Under | 46c | 29.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…8417backed Under | 47c | 26.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aec…5695backed Over | 55c | 23.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…8973backed Over | 55c | 23.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Estudiantes vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5this page
- AA Estudiantes vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.