Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Lambermont Men: Henri Haupt vs Matthew Carroll
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ec81433e9fd747c017f32382653b723405b962aa0c9e14a612c4e4b21557e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Henri Hauptof Henri Haupt, Matthew Carroll
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc1a…bbb8backed Henri Haupt | 27c | 5,438$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980.64 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Matthew Carroll | 72c | 2,594$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.73 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Matthew Carroll | 47c | 1,294$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.11 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matthew Carroll | 70c | 547.25$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.53 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Matthew Carroll | 46c | 464.82$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…459fbacked Henri Haupt | 46c | 305.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Matthew Carroll | 61c | 297.52$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.17 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Matthew Carroll | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Matthew Carroll | 46c | 139.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Henri Haupt | 40c | 124.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 209 | 39.7%83 W · 126 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Matthew Carroll | 46c | 94.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0868…efe8backed Matthew Carroll | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Matthew Carroll | 59c | 63.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Matthew Carroll | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 67.9%114 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…a164backed Henri Haupt | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.47per pick | 42cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Matthew Carroll | 77c | 30.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Matthew Carroll | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked Matthew Carroll | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…cb91backed Henri Haupt | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.