Commodities · resolved market
Silver (SI) Up or Down on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ef524ead5a935f30eb434825b83aa246d47e4db915ce7ae29916675331f89fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9317…75d9backed Up | 11c | 6,088$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,418.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 11cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 1c | 4,385$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed Down | 38c | 2,952$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70d…ef69backed Up | 62c | 1,925$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…d3ebbacked Up | 62c | 1,029$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Down | 20c | 398.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Down | 10c | 342.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…2151backed Up | 76c | 261.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Down | 37c | 254.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Down | 10c | 254.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…27ccbacked Up | 80c | 127$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…ce10backed Up | 55c | 109.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…3d9abacked Down | 42c | 59.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Up | 67c | 27.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…b412backed Up | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.