College Football · resolved market
Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan State: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f12bd1065109779e3cf80a8b9060a88efca86d51f74c5f0c05a33863351c7bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 53c | 46,577$24,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,891.39 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 47c | 18,382$8,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,641.58 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 47c | 7,496$3,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,523.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 7,055$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.54 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 47c | 6,969$3,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,275.42 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 1,837$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.39 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 47c | 1,623$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.64 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 1,470$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.71 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 47c | 911.32$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 53c | 570$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 47c | 124.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 96.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…f598backed Over | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 47c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 53c | 40.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…309dbacked Under | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan State: O/U 48.5this page
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Michigan StateMichigan State won
- Spread: Michigan State (-3.5)Michigan State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.