Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Kursumlijska Banja 12 Men: Alvaro Peiro Serrano vs Vardan Manukyan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6fde8163946bfa3a759983cd4b5cf6347a8b65bbd102b20e3a2fa95d8b1d98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alvaro Peiro Serranoof Alvaro Peiro Serrano, Vardan Manukyan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4419…fcf4backed Alvaro Peiro Serrano | 67c | 5,025$3,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.3 | 182 | 61.5%112 W · 70 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vardan Manukyan | 34c | 3,657$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.94 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Vardan Manukyan | 34c | 591.91$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.12 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Vardan Manukyan | 22c | 497.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Vardan Manukyan | 48c | 359.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Alvaro Peiro Serrano | 47c | 293.69$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.94 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Vardan Manukyan | 27c | 149.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Vardan Manukyan | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Alvaro Peiro Serrano | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Vardan Manukyan | 23c | 81.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Alvaro Peiro Serrano | 66c | 75.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 209 | 39.7%83 W · 126 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Vardan Manukyan | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Vardan Manukyan | 16c | 69.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Vardan Manukyan | 37c | 50.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Vardan Manukyan | 33c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.