NHL · resolved market
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f716b07eed04bdff27845cd9aeaa44076601a628db7e58dad8fc95af7867964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Toronto Marlies, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 181.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 158.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Marlies | 63c | 122.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…7784backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 52c | 111.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…1933backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 55c | 83.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 33c | 81.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 227 | 28.2%64 W · 163 L | -17.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 55c | 38.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Toronto Marlies | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 30.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 23.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.