Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad beat Anderlecht?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fc9c03f8e3c5ad987ff41586f83bc391cf4d9bfce6b2e934035a3e08e0ecbf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 63c | 54,834$34,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,775.24 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 35c | 50,036$17,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,522.99 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 34c | 5,095$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.78 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…5760backed No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 65c | 700$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 56c | 581.21$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.58 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked No | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 67c | 55.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 36c | 40.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 30c | 40.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…55afbacked Yes | 64c | 35.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad beat Anderlecht?this page
- Will Anderlecht beat Real Sociedad?Yes won
- Will the match between Real Sociedad and Anderlecht end in a Draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.