Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Paolini vs. Sevastova (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402cb003d8acbe6f862ce5f5b24f926e755e1e20b85159c8287f19d45926e151
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paoliniof Paolini, Sevastova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Paolini | 49c | 1,613$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.52 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Sevastova | 54c | 1,472$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.58 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Sevastova | 44c | 1,130$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Paolini | 59c | 430.63$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…87c1backed Paolini | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Paolini | 74c | 401.04$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Paolini | 48c | 400$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Paolini | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a62…57cabacked Paolini | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Sevastova | 8c | 236.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf094…6fd5backed Sevastova | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Paolini | 64c | 204.86$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…3d26backed Paolini | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Paolini | 53c | 163.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Paolini | 39c | 146.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sevastova | 10c | 138$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Sevastova | 19c | 103.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Paolini | 76c | 103.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Paolini | 55c | 61.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Sevastova | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.