MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402db79f69da8892a6b5ab9054cf1d67f17e798948176da4472fdcf23e5e2e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 10,856$6,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,716.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 6,945$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,444.86 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 4,349$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 1,611$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.23 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 1,209$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.96 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 467.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 243.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 205.12$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 199$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 198.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 188.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 174.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 106$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 105.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 102.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 99.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 84.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 83.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 66.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 61.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 55.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 43.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 40.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…4724backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Atlanta Braves | 60c | 25.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 19.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 15.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.