La Liga · resolved market
AD Ceuta FC vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40c5184867b9ea5280584931482d6ee7928bdfdb93584ce6c10800f33f6c9fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 50c | 152$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Over | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 50.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AD Ceuta FC vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5this page
- AD Ceuta FC vs. FC Andorra: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.