CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: MIBR vs. Virtus.pro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x412715878c418c3ed1143f1a016040f0cc17d03135a8f758035051b904b2d66b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MIBRof MIBR, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed MIBR | 40c | 3,341$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 3,004$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.29 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked MIBR | 37c | 1,569$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.06 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed MIBR | 38c | 1,498$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.22 | 650 | 52.6%342 W · 308 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Virtus.pro | 62c | 936.23$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.46 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…0167backed Virtus.pro | 63c | 534.95$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed MIBR | 38c | 470$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.4 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…95e0backed Virtus.pro | 67c | 243.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Virtus.pro | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…a0f0backed MIBR | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed MIBR | 37c | 138.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 425 | 57.4%244 W · 181 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Virtus.pro | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Virtus.pro | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked MIBR | 37c | 88.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 1,149 | 49.4%568 W · 581 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Virtus.pro | 80c | 61.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Virtus.pro | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Virtus.pro | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked MIBR | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed MIBR | 31c | 33.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…e838backed Virtus.pro | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…957dbacked MIBR | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…95e1backed Virtus.pro | 56c | 21.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…6473backed Virtus.pro | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.