Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41bcabec2f1947179273d09e8aa7edad246c50fd484d0e1f1525e8253286e9b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 64c | 608.66$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.92 | 247 | 68.8%170 W · 77 L | +25.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 556.02$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.94 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 15c | 466.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.89 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 23c | 361.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 10c | 300.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.87 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 215.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 64c | 168.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 139.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 17c | 132.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…5861backed Yes | 27c | 121.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 9c | 119.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 11c | 109.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 98.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 97.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 20c | 97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 20c | 97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 76c | 92.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 92.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…12f4backed Yes | 21c | 81.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 20c | 75.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 71.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 68c | 55.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…7e9abacked Yes | 30c | 50.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 53c | 19.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.