Asian League · resolved market
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c9c5f270a0a9e2b523921c119044b705c38ec0c3d2b0c7686000ea08f31dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kawasaki Frontaleof FC Machida Zelvia, Kawasaki Frontale
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Machida Zelvia | 5c | 3,046$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…7e4abacked FC Machida Zelvia | 26c | 257.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…c99dbacked Kawasaki Frontale | 74c | 257.91$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Kawasaki Frontale | 75c | 203.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked FC Machida Zelvia | 24c | 168.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Kawasaki Frontale | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked FC Machida Zelvia | 25c | 118.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed FC Machida Zelvia | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Kawasaki Frontale | 73c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…2a98backed FC Machida Zelvia | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed FC Machida Zelvia | 26c | 39.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed FC Machida Zelvia | 26c | 39.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed FC Machida Zelvia | 26c | 39.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kawasaki Frontale | 74c | 34.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Kawasaki Frontale | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Kawasaki Frontale | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.