Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x349e0e7b19bce81c2866b78829a60acbea89e2d4d3e8c76e050c7dbd22d59384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 57c | 9,552$5,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,444.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 6,063$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.01 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 56c | 1,261$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…cb64backed Under | 44c | 1,160$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 43c | 786.74$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.44 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 40c | 753.44$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 43c | 718.33$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.33 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 43c | 713.93$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.94 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 60c | 545.68$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 43c | 480.14$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.68 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 43c | 445.74$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.07 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…2000backed Over | 56c | 292.14$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…a7c1backed Over | 49c | 269.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 43c | 228.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.89 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 205.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 29c | 182.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 23c | 139.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 119 | 31.9%38 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 136.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 135.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 54c | 135.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 46c | 124.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 52c | 112$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 63c | 111.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Under | 52c | 95.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…9f76backed Over | 62c | 92.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 92.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 56c | 88.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…87e5backed Under | 44c | 87.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 47c | 75.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf1…5776backed Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 49c | 67.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 43c | 62.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 43c | 55.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 57c | 52.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 34c | 47.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…6c9bbacked Under | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 41c | 44.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb2…9e4ebacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 46c | 38.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…b82ebacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Under | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 51c | 29.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d41…abeabacked Over | 60c | 26.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…67a8backed Under | 50c | 25.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Over | 55c | 21.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…4563backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…8717backed Under | 53c | 20.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.