CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs HOTU (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41daa825fd710120aab9a41126b9961b725db3558a17f764d5505af06b00e792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $394,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked HOTU | 25c | 267,921$66,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,593.55 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…e5d9backed Spirit | 75c | 168,657$126,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,164.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Spirit | 76c | 58,355$44,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,915.88 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Spirit | 75c | 40,999$30,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,099.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8206…7cacbacked HOTU | 14c | 16,141$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.57 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked HOTU | 19c | 15,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed HOTU | 19c | 12,493$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.7 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…b9d1backed Spirit | 76c | 8,470$6,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6903…b6f9backed HOTU | 12c | 8,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked HOTU | 19c | 7,390$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.1 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed HOTU | 23c | 4,388$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Spirit | 76c | 3,474$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.68 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Spirit | 76c | 3,421$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.05 | 252 | 61.5%155 W · 97 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked HOTU | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…71d6backed HOTU | 19c | 2,447$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.9 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked HOTU | 20c | 2,116$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.46 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HOTU | 17c | 2,000$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.96 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked HOTU | 21c | 1,439$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit | 79c | 1,314$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.47 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed HOTU | 21c | 900$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed HOTU | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed HOTU | 23c | 630.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b9…045abacked Spirit | 76c | 608$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed HOTU | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed HOTU | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed HOTU | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Spirit | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed HOTU | 18c | 469.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked HOTU | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Spirit | 76c | 355.82$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked HOTU | 20c | 233$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Spirit | 76c | 180.42$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed HOTU | 19c | 180.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Spirit | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Spirit | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed HOTU | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed HOTU | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…f301backed HOTU | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 57.7%116 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed HOTU | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…3d76backed HOTU | 17c | 61.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HOTU | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed HOTU | 21c | 58.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Spirit | 80c | 50.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked HOTU | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed Spirit | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Spirit | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8402backed Spirit | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Spirit | 76c | 13.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs HOTU (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs HOTU - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.