MLB · resolved market
Rangers vs. Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41f6d6f6a0f0b14cdf1f0222a7c427935d9a60e7624db57f7b8162dcf51d8bdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Rangers, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rangers | 35c | 3,033$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.22 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Giants | 61c | 2,000$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rangers | 46c | 1,729$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.34 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Giants | 60c | 1,219$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Giants | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.86 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giants | 57c | 1,000$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Rangers | 36c | 814.68$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rangers | 42c | 721.48$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.02 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rangers | 46c | 291.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.24 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Giants | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Giants | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Giants | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Rangers | 36c | 143.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Giants | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…f10ebacked Rangers | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Giants | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rangers | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Giants | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Giants | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Giants | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Rangers | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Giants | 54c | 26.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.