CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x423329714688893ddf308f3762a97760a0109e1a7ba60baaeee924cd1b9aec56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Just Swingof Haunted House, Just Swing
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,791 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Haunted House | 0c | 3,694$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…3407backed Just Swing | 47c | 1,773$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.26 | 289 | 60.6%175 W · 114 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Haunted House | 53c | 1,384$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.82 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Just Swing | 70c | 785.05$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.63 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Haunted House | 41c | 550.89$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.48 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Just Swing | 46c | 383.05$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.85 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Haunted House | 56c | 337.78$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…520abacked Just Swing | 51c | 325.93$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.3 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Haunted House | 52c | 260.89$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Just Swing | 43c | 233.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 328 | 44.5%146 W · 182 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Haunted House | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8945…640bbacked Haunted House | 46c | 197.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 262 | 57.6%151 W · 111 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…13c1backed Haunted House | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2112…38e9backed Just Swing | 60c | 178$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Just Swing | 72c | 161.58$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Haunted House | 21c | 140.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Just Swing | 54c | 129.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Just Swing | 48c | 107.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe489…8fd8backed Just Swing | 56c | 104$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Just Swing | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Haunted House | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed Haunted House | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked Haunted House | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…ad9cbacked Haunted House | 40c | 93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae0…5c53backed Haunted House | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…9c83backed Haunted House | 44c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Haunted House | 42c | 71.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Just Swing | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Just Swing | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…a15fbacked Haunted House | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Haunted House | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Just Swing | 53c | 46.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Haunted House | 54c | 46.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Haunted House | 43c | 44.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152b…9430backed Just Swing | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…3e70backed Haunted House | 54c | 26.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…d6ccbacked Haunted House | 54c | 25.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Just Swing | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Just Swing | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7c…8b83backed Just Swing | 75c | 18.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs Just Swing (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup 2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs Just Swing - Map 1 WinnerJust Swing won
- Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs Just Swing - Map 2 WinnerHaunted House won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.