Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-27.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4257474584af82faf521b0a110d41344649f1e8b0bc943741447c4b8941b8afc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersof Michigan Wolverines, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 50c | 388$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 374.62$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 49c | 167$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 49c | 151$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 48c | 136$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-27.5)this page
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 157.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.