Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x425d78c952ca1aa372fb633c11b8f270268327b92efb3ca19045ce8ab83cbbd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 5,608$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 64c | 4,179$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 2,098$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.2 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,560$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.08 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,529$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.51 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 52c | 1,300$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.98 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 1,170$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.57 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 54c | 1,000$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.23 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 62c | 604.59$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 48c | 422.85$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.88 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 33c | 389.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 65c | 362.2$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 52c | 319.45$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 56c | 250.24$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 20c | 232.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 36c | 203.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 41c | 184.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 53c | 179.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 45c | 169.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 49c | 137$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 48c | 123.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 90.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 59c | 88.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 81.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 52c | 75.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed Under | 50c | 68.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…b854backed Under | 51c | 59.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70b…d568backed Under | 49c | 56.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…fef9backed Over | 63c | 56.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…0613backed Over | 52c | 48.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 48c | 40.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Over | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 21.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 63c | 16.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.