Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b30b452ac8986dfb73b1965a66239be2a78c7d51d6133426bffe1c266efc54c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 8c | 386$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 30c | 263.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 17c | 260$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 25c | 147.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Over | 29c | 132$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 72c | 104.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 31c | 65.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 60.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Under | 80c | 52.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 69c | 51.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef51…f58dbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 70c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Under | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Under | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Under | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.