TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Truth and Tragedy of Moriah Wilson" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,420 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c7c…3db5backed Yes16c773.49$124 inLost-$123.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc553…b054backed Yes7c288.79$20 inLost-$19.511330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost-$102686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c231.83$19 inLost-$18.551,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d4…4027backed Yes46c214$99 inLost-$99.214665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes7c206.93$15 inLost-$14.637936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes9c160.64$14 inLost-$14.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef04…d06ebacked Yes17c123.83$21 inLost-$21.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e9…5250backed No50c98.97$49 inWon+$49.4814037.1%52 W · 88 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.