Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs MOUZ (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f6240e33bec047256524151b31db665f585e982cc32524bfacf2379aff7f2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Nigma Galaxy, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 1,784$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.79 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed MOUZ | 56c | 1,717$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.66 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 1,535$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.45 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked MOUZ | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 717.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked MOUZ | 65c | 491.6$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked MOUZ | 66c | 416.92$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.87 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 169$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 63c | 160.78$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7659…158abacked Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 114.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…629ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 107.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 91.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked MOUZ | 52c | 84.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 67.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 58c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked MOUZ | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed MOUZ | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.