Fifa International · resolved market
Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4356837cec1e18e58e6bd079f64a055b0aad71a854035209ef1a0b2a3e8c8222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed Yes | 18c | 52,189$9,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,313.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 18c | 2,550$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 17c | 2,309$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.48 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 17c | 2,070$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,431$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.67 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 16c | 932.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…7e26backed Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 18c | 752$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…a60abacked Yes | 6c | 698$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 8c | 615.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 17c | 599.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 520.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 18c | 449.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Yes | 19c | 262$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…dfb9backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 155.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 17c | 154.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…b289backed Yes | 18c | 148.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c46abacked Yes | 17c | 101.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350d…b898backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 17.7%22 W · 102 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…2ebbbacked Yes | 18c | 56.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-13?this page
- Will Slovenia vs. Switzerland end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.