Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x439e4ea9321c2ba7a61de8b3f16c7bf6167657ed8da93d52c5dd0367512e38f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 62c | 1,349$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.52 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…ab15backed Yes | 36c | 1,144$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 66c | 878.61$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.88 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 50c | 688.98$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.47 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Yes | 40c | 555.47$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.28 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Yes | 74c | 246$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 67c | 233.79$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 66c | 210.61$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 40.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked No | 52c | 33.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.