Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Martin Landaluce vs Stefano Travaglia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x440eb01e374460968256e650e4cb811ed3ac127dd9be7f3fce5edd7e957e76c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Travagliaof Landaluce, Travaglia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Landaluce | 64c | 5,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Travaglia | 37c | 4,315$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,711.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Travaglia | 33c | 1,104$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.25 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…fdf8backed Landaluce | 72c | 1,017$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Travaglia | 28c | 518.38$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.23 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Landaluce | 67c | 295$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Travaglia | 33c | 275.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.17 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Landaluce | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Travaglia | 37c | 144.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Travaglia | 30c | 95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Travaglia | 37c | 68.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Landaluce | 53c | 66.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Travaglia | 50c | 61.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…9bd3backed Landaluce | 20c | 60.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Travaglia | 41c | 54.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Travaglia | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Landaluce | 64c | 45.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Landaluce | 56c | 38.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe925…7d47backed Travaglia | 32c | 30.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Landaluce | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Landaluce | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.