Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Opelka vs. Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x446f0986380b8dd03f26ce5a9331f90f22ebe444cbec0cafc76a326e27a66f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Opelkaof Opelka, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Machac | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Opelka | 40c | 756.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.25 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Machac | 39c | 617.11$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Opelka | 62c | 400.11$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.53 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Opelka | 51c | 321.7$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…060ebacked Opelka | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Opelka | 34c | 250$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Machac | 40c | 250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Machac | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Opelka | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Machac | 58c | 238.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Opelka | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Opelka | 47c | 237.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.68 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Opelka | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Machac | 60c | 211.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Opelka | 39c | 167.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Machac | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Opelka | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Opelka | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Opelka | 40c | 84.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Opelka | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Machac | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Opelka | 71c | 47.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.