Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs 1win (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x447d9f97aa9f259d1bc7d4b2a0b47004d76f1053d1d23131ab8f4b81a22394dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed 1win | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Heroic | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked 1win | 30c | 677.09$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Heroic | 73c | 485.71$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked 1win | 43c | 194.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Heroic | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic | 68c | 169$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…8944backed Heroic | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.