Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Liberty Flames (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ea18f6e87e5f36d573fa4bcc9c7d8097f9c499d70c51bbdbbeb05312c7327f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexico State Aggiesof Liberty Flames, New Mexico State Aggies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Liberty Flames | 58c | 863.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 46c | 800.46$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.25 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed New Mexico State Aggies | 42c | 763.52$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.84 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Liberty Flames | 54c | 703.19$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.38 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked New Mexico State Aggies | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Liberty Flames | 53c | 535.61$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.81 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Liberty Flames | 53c | 123.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed New Mexico State Aggies | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Liberty Flames | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Liberty Flames | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Liberty Flames (-8.5)this page
- New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty FlamesLiberty Flames won
- New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames: O/U 141.5Over won
- New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames: O/U 142.5Over won
- Spread: Liberty Flames (-7.5)New Mexico State Aggies won
- Spread: Liberty Flames (-9.5)New Mexico State Aggies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.