NFL · resolved market
Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be blue?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x450b3743b6ed8ed8aebd740ca5acdf2b23fc8892f2a3724b601b17edbc76d8bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x099a…99afbacked Yes | 15c | 2,222$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 12c | 1,128$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…5759backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 14c | 953.33$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0429…df8fbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…8c9ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b0…4ea6backed Yes | 49c | 101.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be blue?this page
- No Gatorade shower at Super Bowl 58?No won
- Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be clear/water?No won
- Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be orange?No won
- Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be purple?Yes won
- Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be red/pink?No won
- Will the Gatorade shower at 2024 Super Bowl be yellow/green?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.