Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Merrimack College Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x455607946e1b190a967d913a4739946bb58226a6c04f68ecffdce5a28d1ac346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Merrimack College Warriorsof Merrimack College Warriors, Siena Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Siena Saints | 52c | 5,933$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.86 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Merrimack College Warriors | 48c | 3,109$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.22 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Merrimack College Warriors | 47c | 3,065$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.01 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Merrimack College Warriors | 48c | 1,591$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.46 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Siena Saints | 56c | 708.3$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.55 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Siena Saints | 57c | 684.26$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.78 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Siena Saints | 54c | 679.23$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.78 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Siena Saints | 55c | 630.85$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.97 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Merrimack College Warriors | 43c | 476.7$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Siena Saints | 52c | 410.15$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Merrimack College Warriors | 45c | 298.92$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Merrimack College Warriors | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Merrimack College Warriors | 48c | 159.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Siena Saints | 35c | 128$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Merrimack College Warriors | 43c | 99.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Merrimack College Warriors | 52c | 99.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Merrimack College Warriors | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Merrimack College Warriors | 52c | 90.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Merrimack College Warriors | 47c | 80.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Merrimack College Warriors | 44c | 68.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Siena Saints | 52c | 61.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eba…3b04backed Siena Saints | 58c | 51.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Merrimack College Warriors | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Siena Saints | 60c | 44.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Siena Saints | 48c | 40.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Merrimack College Warriors | 49c | 35.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Merrimack College Warriors | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…5945backed Siena Saints | 56c | 31.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Merrimack College Warriors | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Merrimack College Warriors | 63c | 29.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Siena Saints | 56c | 23.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Siena Saints | 60c | 21.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Merrimack College Warriors (-3.5)this page
- Siena Saints vs. Merrimack College WarriorsMerrimack College Warriors won
- Siena Saints vs. Merrimack College Warriors: O/U 132.5Over won
- Siena Saints vs. Merrimack College Warriors: O/U 133.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.