Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45aee9a4c049f96f02a85c695ac04b7671505b58515dbe66e1c9edcd2aa6e541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed AVULUS | 34c | 3,708$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.78 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked AVULUS | 3c | 2,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed AVULUS | 3c | 2,138$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 25c | 1,725$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.82 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed 1win | 39c | 1,523$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.52 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed 1win | 46c | 821$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.9 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked 1win | 64c | 780$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS | 30c | 765.12$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.63 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed 1win | 57c | 322.56$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed 1win | 63c | 174.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked AVULUS | 24c | 165.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked AVULUS | 33c | 126.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed AVULUS | 37c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…3a3bbacked AVULUS | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad9…6044backed 1win | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed 1win | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed 1win | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed 1win | 36c | 82.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed AVULUS | 40c | 81.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed AVULUS | 26c | 77.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 24c | 73.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS | 43c | 68.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 34c | 63.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked AVULUS | 36c | 56.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…f712backed AVULUS | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…7f3bbacked 1win | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed AVULUS | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…4113backed 1win | 73c | 35.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…a8f9backed AVULUS | 44c | 34.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed AVULUS | 38c | 29.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed AVULUS | 64c | 27.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…a6f4backed AVULUS | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked 1win | 56c | 24.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…d732backed 1win | 60c | 19.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AVULUS | 55c | 19.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed 1win | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3)1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.