Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40a5dc54907b42489501cdb09bb27bc48aaa046aa9728f311db6f6ea849a6931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 18c | 3,656$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.51 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked AVULUS | 3c | 3,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed AVULUS | 22c | 2,500$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.25 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1win | 80c | 1,789$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.52 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 1win | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked AVULUS | 22c | 767.76$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed 1win | 77c | 586.43$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed 1win | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9837backed 1win | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed AVULUS | 20c | 484.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed AVULUS | 8c | 453.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed AVULUS | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win | 77c | 331.56$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…f712backed AVULUS | 7c | 311.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed 1win | 74c | 303$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed AVULUS | 23c | 279.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed AVULUS | 21c | 204.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked 1win | 77c | 194.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed AVULUS | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1win | 77c | 181.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…a312backed AVULUS | 10c | 174.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked AVULUS | 14c | 152.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked AVULUS | 16c | 149.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked 1win | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed 1win | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…3b0abacked 1win | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed 1win | 77c | 108.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7378…2abfbacked AVULUS | 15c | 102.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed AVULUS | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…781dbacked 1win | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked AVULUS | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…d732backed AVULUS | 16c | 93.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed AVULUS | 13c | 88.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 15c | 87.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS | 25c | 86.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed AVULUS | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked 1win | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed AVULUS | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed 1win | 75c | 63.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked AVULUS | 22c | 61.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked 1win | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed 1win | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed 1win | 80c | 38.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…3ec9backed AVULUS | 28c | 37.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed 1win | 75c | 36.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked 1win | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked 1win | 75c | 29.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked 1win | 79c | 27.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…c75cbacked 1win | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed 1win | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…2e3cbacked 1win | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.